According to the latest 2026 China Luxury Market Report released by Bain & Company, the Chinese personal luxury goods market is set to rebound from its bottom in 2026, with consumption during the Year of the Horse becoming more rational, selective, and value‑driven. After contracting 3%–5% in 2025, the market showed clear signs of stabilization in the second half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter, when sales returned to positive growth. Bain forecasts a moderate recovery in 2026, supported by rising consumer confidence, a growing middle class, policy support for domestic consumption, and the return of overseas spending to mainland China. This rebound is not a return to the high‑speed expansion of the past, but a structural upgrade marked by deeper consumer maturity and clearer brand differentiation.
One of the most notable shifts is that Year of the Horse consumption has become far more rational. Chinese luxury buyers are no longer driven purely by logos or social display; instead, they prioritize craftsmanship, heritage, scarcity, and long‑term value retention. This trend favors heritage houses with strong craftsmanship credentials, such as Hermès, Chanel, and Cartier, while putting pressure on brands that rely heavily on fast‑fashion‑style collaborations or overly trendy designs. Consumers are also more willing to research product quality, resale performance, and brand history before purchasing, leading to higher average spending per transaction but fewer impulsive buys.
The recovery is also highly uneven across categories and brands. Bain’s data shows that leather goods, high‑end jewelry, and watches will lead the rebound in 2026, as these categories combine strong craftsmanship, investment appeal, and gifting relevance—especially during the Lunar New Year. Beauty and ready‑to‑wear will recover more slowly, as they are more sensitive to price and trend cycles. Meanwhile, ultra‑luxury brands focused on scarcity and exclusivity are outperforming mass‑luxury players, reflecting a flight to quality among affluent consumers.
Another key feature of the 2026 rebound is the accelerated integration of online and offline experiences. Luxury brands are investing more in private shopping services, personalized consultations, and limited‑edition zodiac collections to enhance exclusivity and emotional connection. At the same time, digital channels—especially social commerce and brand‑owned apps—are becoming critical for reaching younger, digitally native consumers. The Year of the Horse has also boosted demand for zodiac‑themed limited editions, which blend cultural symbolism with collectibility, further driving high‑value transactions.
In summary, Bain’s report confirms that 2026 will mark a turning point for China’s luxury market, shifting from volume growth to quality growth. The Year of the Horse consumption wave is defined by rationality, selectivity, and value consciousness, rewarding brands with authentic heritage, superior craftsmanship, and strong value‑retention potential. As the market rebounds, it will also become more competitive and segmented, requiring brands to deepen their cultural resonance and product differentiation to capture the new generation of discerning Chinese luxury consumers.
Company Introduction
Guangzhou Hongrui International Trade Co., Ltd. has been deeply engaged in the international trade industry for over a decade, We are a factory—what makes us stand out is our focus on "1:1 high-quality original leather production". This core advantage allows us to fully control every link from raw material selection to craftsmanship, using genuine original leather that matches top luxury standards, and reproducing product details with 1:1 precision, ensuring each leather product meets the highest quality expectations.
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